So the Experts have arrived at another consensus opinion about our future. But how well have the Experts done in the past? Here are the Top 10 Worst Expert Predictions (plus a bonus surprise prediction):

1) Banning DDT will save our environment

2) Overpopulation will lead to mass starvation

3) Global cooling will lead to reduced food supplies

4) The world is running out of oil

5) Second hand smoke kills thousands annually

6) Genetically modified crops pose extreme danger to humans and animals

7) Consumption of seafood can lead to mercury poisoning

8) El Nino to cause wet weather in 2006/07

9) Banning CFCs will save the ozone layer

10) Polar bears are dying for lack of adequate ice floes

1) Banning DDT will save our environment

Rachel Carson sounded the alarm against DDT in her 1962 book, Silent Spring, which completely misrepresented the research on DDT’s effects on game birds. In 1972, the EPA administrator (William Ruckelshaus), a member of the Environmental Defense Fund, ignored the science and his own staff recommendations and banned DDT. What ensued was a third world tragedy of colossal proportions. The most effective anti-malarial ever created was effectively banned globally, resulting in over 1 million malaria-related deaths per year. Fast forward 30 years, and even the World Health Organization is now encouraging the use of DDT, acknowledging that all other methods have failed to control malaria. Where it has been used in South Africa, Zambia, and Swaziland, malaria disease and death rates have been reduced by 75% in just 2 years with no known adverse effects on human or animal health.

2) Overpopulation will lead to mass starvation

In the prologue to The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich wrote, "In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..." Yet, never has food been more abundant on a world-wide basis than today. Starvation that exists is largely due to political causes and wars, not overpopulation. Ehrlich, regarded as a latter day Malthus, still has ardent adherents to his overpopulation theories.

3) Global cooling will lead to reduced food supplies

In the 70s, meteorologists were of the nearly unanimous view (according to Newsweek, April 28, 1975) that the cooling earth would “reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century…the resulting famines could be catastrophic.” A 30-year cooling trend that started in the 1940s generated great concern among climatologists. We would need to adapt to a colder world, they cautioned. Growing seasons will shorten by weeks and decrease agricultural productivity. Yet the cooling trend that was noted by the Experts in the 70s occurred despite rising CO2 levels. This cooling anomaly has never been adequately explained away by today’s climate change Experts.

4) The world is running out of oil

For decades we have been hearing from the Experts that worldwide oil production is in terminal decline. The first prediction of “peak oil” in the 50s was accurate only for US reserves in the lower 48 states. However, the theory was incorrectly extended to world reserves, and the “peak oil” Experts have gotten it wrong ever since. Improvements in technology allow access to reserves unreachable 40 years ago. Proven worldwide reserves have actually increased since the prediction was first made, currently at 1.2 trillion barrels. Estimates of total worldwide reserves range from 3.7 to 4.5 trillion barrels, enough to last for 122-140 years at current consumption rates. The reserves of the Athabasca Oil Sands of Alberta reportedly hold over 180 billion barrels. The oil shale of the western US’s Green River Basin is said to contain over 1 trillion barrels of oil (not even counted as part of worldwide reserves) if the political will exists to extract it. It is simply more expensive to extract oil from shale but the technology exists. Oil shale yields a 3:1 return on the energy needed to extract it compared to a 10:1 return for most oil fields. Compared to the paltry 1.3 to 1 return on ethanol production, extraction from oil shale is a comparative energy bargain.

5) Second hand smoke kills thousands annually

Experts claim that over 50,000 deaths a year in the US are due to second hand smoke. Yet, two big blockbuster studies from 2002 and 2003 that drove a stake in the heart of these claims are among the most ignored and vilified investigations in recent memory. The first (British Medical Journal, May 17, 2003), with data drawn from the massive Cancer Prevention Study I by the American Cancer Society of over 36,000 non-smokers who lived with smokers, covering 39 years (1960-1998), concluded the following: "The results do not support a causal relation between environmental tobacco smoke [ETS] and tobacco related mortality... The association between exposure to [ETS] and coronary heart disease and lung cancer may be considerably weaker than generally believed." The second (American Journal of Epidemiology, September, 2002), a study of 20,000 German airline flight attendants with ETS exposure states: "We found a rather remarkably low SMR [standardized mortality ratio] for lung cancer among female cabin attendants and no increase for male cabin attendants, indicating that smoking and exposure to passive smoking may not play an important role in mortality in this group. The risk of cardiovascular disease mortality for male and female air crew was surprisingly low."

6) Genetically modified crop pose extreme danger to humans and animals

After the consumption of over one trillion servings of gene-spliced foods in the US alone, not a single person has been harmed by genetically engineered crops. Crops enhanced by biotechnology, so called genetically modified organisms or GMO, cover over 100 million acres in 13 countries and are found in thousands of food products. Never has agricultural production been so efficient and benefited so many. Sadly, the very regions that are in most need of GMO crops, such as sub-Saharan Africa, are intimidated from importing GMO feeds, foods, and seeds that are vital to increasing agricultural production. The European Union, with fanatical zeal, so strongly opposes GMO that it threatens trade sanctions against developing nations that introduce GMO into the food supply. South Africa stands alone in Africa as a nation that has successfully introduced GMO crops, resulting in marked increases in agricultural production. In 2007, the World Trade Organization ruled against the EU in a case brought by the US and other nations against a de facto moratorium on GMO products.

7) Consumption of seafood can lead to mercury poisoning

For decades, American and British public health Experts have warned pregnant women about the risks of seafood and fish consumption to avoid potentially high levels of mercury. They caution that pregnant women should consume no more than 340 grams (about 3/4 pound) of seafood per week due to fetal developmental risks. Now research published in The Lancet (January, 2007) looks at data from over 11,000 pregnant women who were tracked over 8 years. The study concludes: "Maternal seafood consumption of less than 340 grams per week in pregnancy did not protect children from adverse outcomes; rather, we recorded beneficial effects on child development with maternal seafood intakes of more than 340 grams per week," wrote lead author Joseph Hibbeln, MD from the US National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. "These results show that risks from the loss of nutrients were greater than the risks of harm from exposure to trace contaminants in 340 grams seafood eaten weekly," he wrote.

8) El Nino to cause wet weather in 2006/07

The Experts predicted for 2006 higher precipitation than normal for the west coast due to El Nino conditions in the Pacific. The El Nino was regarded as significant enough that it was cited as the major factor for the failure of the 2006 hurricane season to repeat the catastrophes of 2005. In fact, the climate change hysteria over the looming hurricane disasters in 2006 fizzled out like the predicted storms. One of NASA’s top Experts predicted “…if the ocean waters continue to warm and spread eastward, this event would likely strengthen, perhaps bringing much-needed rainfall to the southwestern and southeastern United States this winter." Yet the west coast is experiencing one of the driest years on record. How can these same Experts predict climate effects over the next 100 years with 90% certainty when they can’t even get the next season’s precipitation or hurricane predictions correct?

9) Banning CFCs will save the ozone layer

Back in 1989, under the auspices of the United Nations, the Montreal Protocol on the Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer initiated global cooperation to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Over 150 countries were parties to the agreement to eliminate CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) from their industries, transportation systems, and homes at a cost of many billions of dollars. Kofi Anan called the Protocol, “Perhaps the most successful international agreement to date.” Consequently, CFC concentrations have been falling since 1995.

So has the ozone hole gone away? Not even close. NOAA and NASA say the ozone hole was bigger and deeper than ever in 2006. Oh, but take heart. NOAA actually claims the hole is really getting better, not worse. How is that possible? Well colder than average temperatures over the Antarctic masks the improvement. Say again? Colder than average temperatures?

10) Polar bears are dying for lack of adequate ice floes

We see pictures of polar bears allegedly stranded on ice flows, drifting to an uncertain fate. Yet we have learned that there are now more polar bears than 40 years ago. The Canadian polar bear population has actually increased by 25% over the past decade – now numbering 15,000 bears. The total worldwide polar bear population is estimated at 20,000 to 25,000.

Bonus Expert Consensus Prediction:

Embryonic Stem Cells will produce remarkable cures in our lifetimes

Several promising developments in stem cell technology have captured the imaginations of the press and the public. These include (in animal models) developing brain, bone and muscle cells, regenerating damaged disc tissue, replacing damaged cells in Parkinson’s disease, and producing insulin. And in human models, growing mini-artificial livers and bladder tissue, providing a treatment for graft versus host disease (GVHD), including related inflammatory conditions like Crohn’s disease, replacing radiation-suppressed immune systems (an existing therapy), and repair of damaged heart tissue.

The only thing missing from these astonishing developments are embryonic stem cells (ESCs). How can that be? All these revolutionary breakthroughs employed adult or somatic stem cells (ASCs), not ESCs. Media reports tend to bury this aspect deep in their glowing stories on stem cell research or mention it not at all. Thus far, ASCs appear much more conducive to manipulation that can trigger tissue differentiation and sustained growth than ESCs.

Even the strongest advocates of ESC research are trying to damp-down the publics’ over-hyped expectations. The California Institute for Regenerative Medicine, funded by California taxpayers through a $3 billion bond, says the agency is unlikely to develop cures for diseases any time soon. The Institute cautions that by the end of the 10 year life of the bond that only early stage studies are likely to be under way, with another decade or more of research needed before useful treatments are available.

In the meantime, with the lion’s share of government funding directed to ESC research exclusively (the California initiative’s billions of dollars are restricted to ESC research), promising near-term breakthroughs using ASCs could be crowded out in the stampede to jump on the ESC funding bandwagon.

In a related development, Great Britain’s Human Fertility and Embryology Authority has endorsed payment for eggs generated through fertility treatments for stem cell and cloning research. With so much of the public treasure directed to ESC research, the feared production of eggs and ultimately embryos for monetary gain is fast upon us.

So you see, history reveals a different picture of prognostication by Experts. We have not been witness to expert, scientific consensus as much as a kind of multinational, mindless, group think. The same technologies that have produced the highest levels of health and affluence in history are, according to our Experts, really to be feared. You will never hear an apology from any Expert despite being so wrong, so often. And watch out when politicians take charge of the message.

Now we know how Galileo felt.

Posted by Edward Geehr